3D printing's progress
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a very useful benchmark from which to assess the progress of a technology.
In a nutshell, it places technology in one of five categories: Technology Trigger; Peak of Inflated Expectations; Trough of Disillusionment; Slope of Enlightenment; and Plateau of Productivity.
Taking this as a guide, it's fair to say that 3D printing has in one form or another been balanced precariously on the Peak of Inflated Expectations for some time now. Given which, it would seem overdue for a slide into the Trough of Disillusionment, as people realise that the claims that have been made for this technology have either been inflated or will take a lot longer to become reality than they had been led to believe.
And the fact is that few technologies have been more comprehensively hyped and overblown than 3D printing. Very few mainstream media articles about it have not been accompanied by outlandish claims about its 'likely' effects on manufacturing in particular and the world in general.
From being told about 3D printed food, organs or guns to reading about the ability we will all soon apparently have to download CAD files and print out whatever we want, there are disappointments coming to anyone who does not take these claims with more than a pinch of salt.
The problem is that these excessive expectations are constantly encouraged, with every new development hailed as the great breakthrough.?
The problem is that, with every great breakthrough that somehow fails to have the huge effect we are told to expect, there is a danger that faith in the technology as a whole can erode.
None of this is meant to decry the real potential of 3D printing. It is a fascinating technology that is taking genuinely important leaps that are already changing industry. Indeed, in some industries (the manufacture of dental implants springs to mind) it has already had a revolutionary effect. However, for the most part, the process is more one of evolution than revolution.
So, while a trip to the 'Trough of Disillusionment' may be on the cards for 3D printing, it is to be hoped that it will not be a long one and that the 'Plateau of Productivity' will not be far behind.
